Blu-ray disc sales predicted to take 50 per cent of the market by 2012
Sales of Blu-ray discs are expected to reach 45 million in the US by the end of this year, and could account for 40-50 per cent of the total video disc market by 2102, according to Futuresource Consulting.
If sales do reach the expected level in the US by end-2008, that will be a 400 per cent increase over last year – helped enormously, no doubt, by the demise of rival format HD DVD.
In Europe, awareness and takeup of Blu-ray is still small, says Futuresource, with Blu-ray expected to take 2 per cent of the overall market in the UK and France this year, with an increase to 5-6 per cent in 2009.
What has been disappointing to date for the content companies has been the lack of catalogue sales, although the studios are showing no signs of reducing their interest in catalogue product. "All eyes are on Warner's initiative to cut catalogue prices," says Mai Hoang, alead analyst in the Futuresource Home Video team. "Other studios are going to be watching consumer reaction to this very carefully."
Futuresource says it would be "amazed if we don't see a Blu-ray player in the US at or below $250 by the end of this year. In the UK we expect player prices to fall to around £149 and there may be one or two companies trying to better that."
Comments
I'd just say that we'll have to revisit the debate in 2012, but to my mind the title of the article may well be fortelling Blu-ray's fate: "Blu-ray disc sales predicted to take 50 per cent of the market by 2012".
If all BR can do is take 50% by then then it's future is not great perhaps, and a decline from 50% may well happen.
2012 is 3.5 years away. Think back 3.5 years to 2005, and look how far on-demand services have come on in that time. And think how far they will go in another similar period with HD content, the Sky/Virgin boxes offering recording of huge amounts of pre-scheduled material to watch anytime to suit and the explosion of BBC iPlayer.
Heck, even I watched a BBC programme on the web last night at 1pm that I missed last week on terrestial. I'd never have thought I'd want to do that, but hey now I have and it's just very possible technology I like it. And for the kids it's just the way they expect things. Where does that leave Blu-ray's future?
No offence taken, but what you're saying only confirms my views! As you've not given me any reason to go out and buy one have you? And fortunately most people have more sense than to just go out and part with their hard earned just becasue the tech industry says to!
If people did like you doubtless we would all have gone out and been fleeced by having to replace our CD collections for SACD or DVD Audio! And we would have ended up buying into such dead ducks like Mini-Disk/SACD/Video 8 or any of the other myriad of 'next big things' that never did anything more for us than what we had already, and hence never took off.
Having 'better' something or other (sound/video quality) is not enough. Surely for the general public to adopt quickly en masse it has to do something new for me? That's why DVD did take off. Compared to VHS it offered me much better quality, an end to damaged media, direct access to disk sections, extra content, access speed etc. Blu-Ray offers me better quality, that's all really. More extra content and spec 2.0 with web integration isn't going to pull the masses in IMO.
Nope, i'm sorry but until you sell it to the current non-adapters or sceptics DVD will live on at a time when we are starring down the barrel of potential recession, and the cost of the player and the media remain high.
Can't you just hear a million wives on Saturday afternoon in Dixons saying "So it doesn't do anything new then... I'm happy with the picture quality we have..."
@ Clare: Quite a lot of decent films nowadays are being offered both in SD and BD.
@ mring: switching to Euro doesnt help the situation at all. The prices are not affected by the type of currency but by the taxes, and other overheads and financial matters.
@ Dazmb: Blue Ray may never take off as long as people have a pesimistic or negative view towards it as you have (no offence).
I dont understand all this moaning about prices. If you want better quality you have to pay more. And the BR is still a new technology. How long did it take SD DVD to lower its prices to the level they are today?
Here's a thought... Blu-ray may NEVER make the market sales/penetration that DVD did. Why? People fed up with the cost of going back and replacing all their fairly recently purchased DVD discs, the cost of BR discs as already mentioned (maybe recession coming to a town near you soon...) and not to mention the basic fact that maybe Blu-ray has come too late to the party and without a nice enough present to give it's hosts! On-demand content is here to stay and set to get more prominent over the years as ADSL 2 comes to town.
I think Blu-ray's party trick of higher quality maybe doesn't excite the general population as much as those in the biz believe? Let's face it, a Blu-ray player is less of a new 'gadget/toy' to Joe Bloggs upgrading from a DVD player than that same DVD player was upgrading from a VCR. Upscaling DVD's only make it a harder decision to purchase Blu-Ray too.
For me i'm waiting to see what the Hi-Fi boys (Arcam / Cambridge) bring out as I like an all-in-one solution for my A/V (CD/MP3/DVD), but I have to say that I'm the A/V industry still hasn't pursuaded me away from the temptation to simply swap my Arcam DV-78 with a DV-135 upscaling player and just skip Blu-ray altogether - living a few years with that until on-demand content rules the roost in the next few years as it surely will.
Ultimately I think standard DVD will be like audio CD and not be shifted easily from the front room. I can see it being around for a long time to come.
here all new blu-rays are 19euro's and older ones are 14,99euro's.
just a little tip: switch to the euro and prices will go down over there.
It's a complete rip off when you can pay up to £30 for a blu ray disc,especially when some are only equal to or slightly better than DVD.
I only have 4 blu ray at the moment and have not paid more than £10 for any and certainly do not intend to in the future.
If the majority of people waited whilst new releases have been out for a few month or so then prices would soon start to fall.Unfortunately there are too many gullible people about.
Bang On Clare! Totally Agree...and £9.99 or thereabouts would be quite an appealing price to pay for a good Blu Ray Film
I agree Clare. I expect the Dark Knight to sell in very large numbers on Blu Ray.
I'm not surprised there's been a lack of catalogue sales - the rubbish they're trying to sell on Blu-ray (First Knight; 50 First Dates; other random garbage) at high prices is hardly appealing. They need more hot releases the same day (or even before) the DVD release to stimulate the market. Then repackage the catalogue titles as £9.99 or less bargain buys....